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Russian political leaders’ electoral rating

Bashkirova and partners independent research agency proceeding with further insights into Russians’ electoral behavior has completed another representative national survey. In this study we have wondered by Russians, who they would have given their votes to in case the presidential elections were taking place in the coming weekends.

 

Three thirds of Russians (77,3%) are willing to vote for the sitting Russian president V.Putin, maintaining the huge year-over-year breakaway from all his political rivals. After the patriotic mobilization of 2014, his electoral and confidence rating has been unchangeably high. It’s worth noting that according to the findings of the representative surveys made by Bashkirova and partners, the home “party of power” (which is the “United Russia” party) is going to receive votes of 57% of respondents, i.e. 20% down compared to the figures of support given to the Russian president. We may assume that V.Putin is perceived by great percentage of our respondents not as a candidate form some particular party, but rather as a national leader, standing beyond contradictions existing between different political parties and factions.

 The second honorable position is granted to G.Zyuganov with nearly 4% of respondents willing to vote for him. Unlike the leader of our hypothetical election race, his rating is more than twice as smaller than that of the party he’s heading (10% of Russians are prepared to vote for the CPRF). It’s possible that on the one hand the electorate over the 20 years of G.Zyuganov’s bright political career has been bored with the irreplaceable leader of national communists. On the other hand the CPRF devoted electorate is voting above all for the brand of the “Communist Party”, without identifying it with its leader (despite the well-known cult of a leader tradition rooted deeply in the home communist movement). We also have to note that an exceeding half of the CPRF supporters are willing to give their votes to the sitting Russian president.

 The permanent leader of the LDPR V.Zhirinovsky has settled down on the third line of the rating. He is just several deciles percent behind his old competitor – the leader of the Communist Party. And yet unlike the head of communists his personal rating does not differ much (just 1,5% down) from the rating of his party. It’s not at all surprising as the decades-long popularity of the party, having no distinctly expressed ideology, had been built on the pillar of its leader’s unique charisma. Over recent years the Russian authorities have been actively utilizing the patriot-oriented, populist and conservative rhetoric – the one akin to views of the liberal democrats’ leader. The authorities have managed to appeal to sympathies of some of its target audience – Russians, willing to vote for V.Putin and yet, preferring the LDPR and not at all the “United Russia” (in LDPR supporters we find  more than a third of those looking to give their votes to the presently effective Russian president). We may predict this will result in further decreasing in electoral rating of V.Zhirinovsky (provided however that the core of faithful fans of his political style remains stable).  

 

This study was conducted in July 2015 based on all-Russia random route sample (18+) by means of face-to-face interviews in place of residence. Altogether 1500 respondents in 8 federal districts, 150 settlements, 200 sample points have been interviewed. The sample error makes ± 2,5% by C.I. of 95%.  





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