Bashkirova & Partners » Blog » Opinion Polls » The possibility of Russian “Maydan”

The possibility of Russian “Maydan”

Russian and European mass media continue to pay special attention to the civil war in Ukraine. The situation is also instable in some other countries of the former USSR. The political state in Abkhazia has got more acute lately; oppositionists hold a mass-meeting in Sukhumi and, as a result, made the president retire. Is there a possibility of “Maydan” in the countries that once were a part of the Soviet Union? Independent research agency “Bashkirova & Partners Ltd.” continues to study the problem of possible political crises in the former USSR countries (see our previous materials).

   

The majority of Russians (68%) consider it impossible to have “Maydan” in Russia. However, a quarter of respondents (23%) believe Russia is likely to follow Ukrainian way. Notable, that the younger part of the population has stronger pro-Russian position than the older one. It can be explained by the fact that people younger than 50 years old use wider range of sources of information (according to our surveys, the percent of Internet users and their belief in online mass-media at age of 50+ is much less than those of a younger age).

 

The majority of respondents assuming the possibility of armed conflict in Russia live in Far Eastern (43%) and North Caucasian (39%) Federal Districts. We suppose that people of remote regions feel social and economic problems more acute than those of the central ones, so they don’t see instability in the country as something impossible.

The minority of people supposing the same development for Russia lives in Northwestern Federal District (11%), the percent is almost the same in Federal Cities: Moscow and St. Petersburg (less than 14%).

We will try to explain the tendency: one of our previous surveys (January, 2014) showed that people in Far Eastern Federal District are unsatisfied with how political institutions function (75% claimed they are not satisfied with it).

According to government statistics, some regions of North Caucasian Federal District are notable for extremely low level of income per capita (in some regions up to 70% less than the average level in the country).

According to the survey, the republics of North Caucuses showed high level of unemployment in 2013 (bout a half of gainfully occupied population is unemployed there).

We may assume that the combination of social and economic factors led to the situation when a considerable part of population in these regions considers the political crisis in Russia similar to the one in Ukraine possible.

  

The survey was conducted in May, 2014 on national random route sample of Russian citizens (18+). Personal interviews were held domiciliary with1500 of respondents in 8 federal districts, 100 settlements, in 200 sampling points. Sampling error ±2.5%.





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