INDEPENDENT RESEARCH AGENCY

Rating political parties in June 2014

“The Single Voting Day” is due to take place in September 2014, where residents from different regions of Russia will be electing heads of the Federation subordinate entities and deputies into the regional legislative assembly. The independent research company of Bashkirova and partners has conducted an all-Russia survey to learn status of potential competitors one month before the election race starts. This autumn we will be able to compare the results and name a party, which conducted the most effective election campaign of this year.

Rating of the “United Russia” has grown over one year period by 11 p.p. from 37% up to 48%. The given party’s popularity rising can be explained by the upsurge of patriotic moods after Crimea peninsula has been attached to Russia. The President’s policy in relation of Ukraine, according to our data, enjoys support of about 82% of Russian citizens interviewed while his overall foreign policy strategy is supported by 88% of people.  

V.Putin and the party supporting him stepping out as authors and performers of this historic decision have received significant likes gain, most likely through those respondents who had not been able to get definite earlier on their voting preference (the number of people, who stated «Neither of the parties» has reduced from 29% down to 15% over this year). Previously apolitical people, who in spring 2014 definitely supported the country territorial extension, thus apparently have projected their likes onto the political elite managing the state.

 Other parties ratings have not changed much. CPRF is supported by 9% or people, LDPR – by 8%, «Just Russia» - by 5%, «Yabloko» - by 2%. We can state that regardless of any support of (CPRF, LDPR, «Just Russia») or rejection («Yabloko») of the attaching of the Republic of Crimea to Russia, ratings of these parties have remained nearly unchanged. Most likely the victorious palms have been given to direct sponsors and participants of the mentioned popular decision, and the parties of the systemic opposition, supporting the government, failed to enlarge its electorate, playing for their opponents within the informational campaign.

 It’s also worth noting, there still exists an electoral niche for a new large party in Russia. 15% of respondents are still failing to define a party among the candidates which would be advocating their interests.

 We can define the specific attributes for electorate of the leading parties.

Thus the rating of CPRF amongst the young (between 18 and 29 of age) is just 3%, while it is as twice as higher than national average with the retired (above 60 of age) i.e. 20%. Considering the fact that 7-9 p.p.* of young people consider themselves to be “left” and additionally 5% think they are “leftists” (about 20% of the retired consider themselves “left”). Voters of older age vote for the Communist Party traditionally eagerly. However the gap between middle age respondents’ likes (6-9%) and the support within the young is signaling to G.Zyuganov that he should focus on a more effective positioning of his party inside the youth environment.

LDPR and Just Russia are most actively supported by Russians 40-50 of age (by 4-5 p.p. greater than population average).

We should also point to that fact, that men vote for LDPR more eagerly (12% vs. 8% at average) while lades more frequently vote for the ruling party (52% vs. 48% at average). The party of V.Zhirinovsky is probably associated by the electorate with the tough, military-related, “masculine” political line and the United Russia – rather with some stable and content life.

 

The study was conducted in the latter half of June, 2014 based on all-Russia random route sample (18+) using face-to-face interviews in place of residence. Altogether 1500 respondents in 8 federal districts, 100 settlements, 200 sample points have been surveyed. The sample error makes up 2,5%.

 

*p.p.- percentage point

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