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Rating of political parties
In three months time, on September 13th, the single voting day is going to take place in
Bashkirova and partners Independent research agency continues publishing electoral rating for the leading political parties in
Over the six months that passed since December 2014 (the date of our latest election dedicated survey, the results been covered on in our press-release from January 20th, 2015) the breakdown in potential voters’ preferences has not changed much. The «United Russia» is still holding leadership with 57%. CPRF takes the second top line on the list with 10%. It is followed by LDPR, the share of supporters of which has decreased from 7% down to 5% in half a year time.
The percentage of voters willing to give their votes for the «Just Russia» party is now by 1% down and the number of supporters of «Yabloko» party has grown by half a percentage point (we should note that figures for all other parties outside the list of the top three favorites are less than sample error).
We would like to analyze those potential voters of the parties, holding the three top lines on our rating (the share of respondents, willing to vote for other parties is very small, and therefore isn’t accessible for a detailed analysis using quantitative methods).
The «United Russia» is certainly an undisputable leader with more than a half of Russian adults willing to give their votes for it. As well as in our preceding releases, we would like to point to relatively low support level for the party in respondents above 60 years old – 46%. We should give particular note to that according to the resulting data from the national representative survey, run by this company in late May – early June this year, the biggest share of the party supporters is detected in people of pre-retirement age (50-59 y.o.). Moreover the percentage of those putting trust in the «United Russia» has increased within this respondent category over the last six months. At the same time, the relevant figure for the young (between 18 and 30 of age) has gone down by 4%.
We can suppose that on the background of rising prices for food and housing services and utilities, our people, having retired, can feel their social vulnerability and fear for facing their future. The rating of the “party of power” does not nearly depend on Russians’ income level (at the same time it is strongly dependent on subjective perceptions of this level). However it shows some correlation with the assessment of the state of the national economy (the percentage of supporters of the United Russia Party in those who consider the Russian economy state to be good is by 10% higher than in those having adverse opinions).
Not focusing on the United Russia Party voters’ specificities, described in our previous press-releases (the greatest percentage of its supporters is found in females and people with high education) we should note the correlation between the party rating and level of religious involvement of a potential voter. The share of those willing to vote for the party reaches 62% in the category of people for whom religion plays significant role in life, and 45% in people, for whom religion isn’t that relevant (this being said, significant share of them, while answering relevant questions of a questionnaire, call themselves orthodox Christians).
Elderly people certainly dominate in CPRF supporters - 24% of supporters are the retired, and just 2% are the young under 30 years old. So the percentage of the Communist party supporters amongst our citizens with income level under 30 000 rubles is by 5% higher than in middle class representatives (note, average pension is about 14 000 rubles in
So the Communist Party is still one of the largest home opposition forces, accumulating protest voters. However if the CPRF does not change its positioning strategy towards the young and middle age audience, the number of its supporters is going to shrink further.
Unlike the Communists, the LDPR is free of problems of gaining young voters. The party leader, V.Zhirinovsky’s charisma has been without fail drawing everyone’s attention and contributing to winning new supporters, even in those categories of people who were born after Vladimir Zhirinovsky had stepped up the Russian political arena. We find 7% of the young supporters under 30 years old and only around 4% in the retired, who, perhaps, have already got sick and tired of this leader’s often eccentric public behavior. Accordingly we can observe the positive correlation between the LDPR popularity and respondents’ income level, as well as between their being Internet users (the higher income level and Internet using frequency, the bigger the percentage of LDPR supporters).
It’s worth noting that 24% of interviewees have not still decided which party to prefer, and their votes are what political forces are going to fight for in time of the coming autumn election campaign.
This study was conducted in May 2015 based on all-Russia random route sample (18+) by means of face-to-face interviews in place of residence. Altogether 1500 respondents in 8 federal districts, 150 settlements, 200 sample points have been surveyed. The sample error makes up ± 2,5%, C.I. is 95%.