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Political parties ratings before the single voting day

10 days prior to the single voting day, Bashkirova and partners is releasing the findings in another national representative survey. We were asking our people, who they would most likely vote for if elections took place next weekend. Both residents of regions with elections planned for September 13th and people from regions with no elections in this year took part in the survey. And yet, the study results will be of interest to everyone who is following political processes in Russia.

More than a half of respondents (53%) are willing to cast their vote to the “United Russia” candidates. We should note that just several months ago (see our release from June, 11) the number of this party’s supporters in elections was by 4% greater. Perhaps worsening of the economic situation in this country, ruble devaluation and increase in prices are having negative impact on the rating of the party headed by the Russian government leader. We suppose, that the period of the swift rating growth for this party is over now. It started in winter 2014 (see our release dated January 2015), where the electoral rating of the “UR” grew from 37% up to 57% over one year time. Since the political mobilization of the Russian society, having provided the increase in rating of the Russian public’s confidence in the national state agencies (please see our previous press-releases) had been based on the political conflict above all, the achievements of the President and Prime-minister in the area of the national security are rated by our respondents as twice as higher than the those related to tasks resolved by the authorities in the national economy and the sphere of fighting corruption. And there’s nothing surprising about that the growing pile of economy problems has hit the ratings of the “Power” party, which has escaped from regulating and shaping the Russian foreign policy course, and yet which’s responsible (through the local governors and mayors, being the party members) for failures in home economic and social policies. Besides, according to quite a number of our interviewees, the “UR” leader, the head of the Russian government, D.Medvedyev does not manage his job functions that well as the President does, the president who had stepped down from the party leadership post. The results of our survey evidence, that the Prime-minister enjoys twice less in number “excellent” marks, while the “UR” party was given even thrice less numbered such marks).

As well as in our previous material about electoral ratings of the Russian political parties, we would like to note, that percentage of respondents willing to vote for the “Power” party is 4% down vs. mean value in the retired voters: the “United Russia” manages to succeed in competing with the Russian communists in this age category. At the same time rating of “UR” in the category of respondents between 30 and 40 of age makes versa, 57%, while the rating with CPRF is the least here. It’s remarkable, but the “UR” rating is the greatest (66%) in the poorest people category (with income level under 10 000 rubles) and in representatives of a low third of the middle class (with incomes between 40 000 and 50 000 rubles, capable of affording large expensive home appliances, but unable of buying a flat or a car). We may suppose that these categories members feel themselves the least secured under crisis conditions (some are found on the poverty line, while the others sense qualitative change in their habitual consumption routine style). These categories hope to rely on the government supports, showing their loyalty to the main national political force (other population groups either haven’t sensed yet the crisis impact, or rely on their own resources not believing in effectiveness of steps, undertaken by the Russian authorities).  

Percentage of Russians who are ready to vote for the CPRF, has decreased by 2%, most likely over the insufficient activity of communists in the media on the background of unfolding pre-election campaign. The communists have chosen such political tactics which does not allow their positioning as neither simply pro-government force, nor direct oppositionists ready to publicly lambast the government, gather mass protest under slogans of social and labor rights of wage hands (which would be logical for politicians adherent to “left” political stands in time of an economic crisis and people’s living standards plummeting). As also in our previous releases, we should note, that the CPRF rating reaches 22% in elderly voters, while it is at most 3% amongst the young.  

Electoral rating for LDPR has not changed over the past months and maintains at the level of 5%. Changes in support of the party of V.Zhirinovsky in voters groups broken down by income and age, are varying within sample error value. It’s not relevant to analyze the rest of the parties ratings over the small values and insufficient sample volume (standard sample of 1500 people doesn’t allow analyzing small data like this). 



This study was conducted in late August 2015 based on all-Russia random route sample (18+) by means of face-to-face interviews in place of residence. Altogether 1500 respondents in 8 federal districts, 150 settlements, 200 sampling points have been surveyed. The sample error makes up ± 2,5%, C.I. is 95% .  


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