INDEPENDENT RESEARCH AGENCY

Future of Ukraine

The conflict in the East of Ukraine has been lasting already for about a half a year. It was triggered by the winter political crisis and its aftermath in the country. The independent research company of Bashkirova and partners has undertaken a survey where we were looking for the answer to the question how Russians see the future of the neighbor country.

 

Above all we wanted to have a sense of how much probable, in respondents’ mind, a full scale armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine was. According to the responses the most of respondents believe that such a conflict is possible but unlikely. Each fifth Russian (20%) is of opinion that the war between our two states is possible but we can still escape it. About the same percentage of people (22%) are sure such a development is not possible even theoretically. And only 11% of respondents think that a full-scale armed conflict is inevitable. So more than a half of the interviewees  (56%) don’t exclude a possibility of a real war, and believe (hope), we can avoid it and thus do not connect the future of the two countries to a grim prospect like that.

  

Above a third of Russians (36%) believe that Ukraine within the boundaries of 1991 as a single state does not exist any longer. They believe the state dissolution has made already a reality (despite the fact that the DPR and LPR still have not been recognized even by the Russian Federation, and the outcome of the ongoing armed conflict is not still evident).  According to additional 27% of interviewees, the dissolution of Ukraine is inevitable, and the government in Kiev isn’t going to manage reintegrating of the Eastern regions.   

17% of Russian respondents interviewed, think the dissolution of the neighbor country still isn’t inevitable but possible, while other 10% believe that Donbas separation is either unlikely or totally impossible. 

 

The majority of our compatriots doesn’t believe in vitality of the Ukrainian state within the boundaries of the year of 1991 and rather predict its dissolution even without Russia’s active involvement in this crisis.  Based on the data acquired during our earlier studies, we know that the most of Russian people are criticizing the Ukrainian authorities’ policies, and support the self-styled republics. Based on their actual sympathies and attitudes people select a specific scenario for a possible future of the Ukrainian statehood.

  

This study was conducted at the end of July 2014 based on all-Russia random route sample (18+) by means of face-to-face interviews in place of residence. Altogether 1500 respondents in 8 federal districts, 150 settlements, 200 sample points have been surveyed. The sample error makes up 2,5%.

---